Will united opposition be able to challenge PM Modi in 2024…? So what?, let’s talk about the figures – on what basis is the opposition trying to defeat the BJP…?
The figures of the Lok Sabha elections 2019 show that there was a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress on a total of 190 seats, out of which the BJP won 175 and the Congress was able to win only 15 seats. The BJP’s strike rate against the Congress in these seats was 92 percent, which means that the BJP will benefit the most if it has a direct fight with the Congress. For this reason, most of the time BJP tries to make the election Rahul Gandhi versus Narendra Modi, so that it can benefit in the election.
While the strike rate of BJP was 92 percent against Congress, the figure was 69 percent against non-Congress parties. If we look at the statistics of the Lok Sabha elections 2019, BJP had a direct contest against non-Congress parties in a total of 185 seats, out of which BJP won 128 seats, and other parties won 57 seats.
On the other hand, while the Congress has a strike rate of only 8 percent in direct contests with the BJP, it has a strike rate of 52 percent against other parties. Lok Sabha Election 2019 statistics show that there was a direct contest between Congress and other parties on a total of 71 seats, out of which Congress won 37 seats, and other parties won 34 seats.
United opposition – means no guarantee of victory…?
The exercise of united opposition to defeat BJP in the Lok Sabha elections 2024 has started again, but the question is how these parties will be able to stop the chariot of BJP’s victory…? The result of the Lok Sabha election 2019 is in front of all of us. The two largest opposition parties SP-BSP formed an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, the state through which Delhi’s route to power passes, in which RLD was also included.
The alliance of SP-BSP-RLD was very strong against BJP in terms of caste and religion, but the election result shocked all the three parties. In the results, BJP alliance won 64 out of total 80 seats, while its vote share was also around 50 percent. The SP-BSP alliance had to be content with only 15 seats.
Similarly, the result of Karnataka is also in front of us, where JDS and Congress contested elections together in 2019, but only two out of 28 seats came in their account, and BJP managed to win 25 seats in the state. Please tell that JDS, Congress and BJP are the main parties in Karnataka.
Now if we talk about the present time, then BJP had won a total of 257 seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2019 against the constituents of the possible opposition alliance that is being formed now, that is, on 257 seats, the potential party of the opposition alliance is second in comparison to BJP. were staying By the way, BJP had won a total of 303 seats across the country.
Seat sharing challenge…?
Despite the unity in the opposition, the biggest challenge is seat sharing. Which party will contest on how many seats in how many states, it will be very important. The question of seat sharing will have to be resolved by the opposition in time, because only a compromise of seats can maintain the opposition unity. If we talk about seat sharing in the state of Bihar, then JDU, RJD, Congress and other parties are part of the Grand Alliance there.
In the Lok Sabha elections 2019, JDU won 16 seats, and in one seat it stood second. Similarly, Congress won only one seat, but was runner-up on 8 seats. RJD was second in 18 seats across the state. Now if we assume that JDU demands 17 seats (16 won seats and 1 runner-up seat), Congress 9 seats (1 won seat and 8 runner-up seats), and RJD 18 seats, then figure It will be more than the total seats in the state. So, even if these three parties reach an agreement, then what will happen to the other parties of the Grand Alliance. Will those parties not contest elections…? And the biggest question is whether she will be a part of the Grand Alliance in case of not getting the seat or not…?
…and it’s not just a state issue. Seat sharing remains challenging in West Bengal as well. The question is, how many seats will the Trinamool Congress give to the Congress and the Left in the Lok Sabha elections. Overall, the most important thing for opposition unity will be to field a joint candidate against the BJP (or NDA), and see how seats are distributed in states like Bihar and Bengal in 2024 and whether all parties agree on that distribution Would…?
