Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Bihar to receive below normal rainfall in July: IMD forecast

Deficient rainfall in some areas including Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Assam is likely to be offset by excess rainfall in the east coast and central and western India. As a result, a normal monsoon will prevail, the Met Bureau said.

There were more dry days in late June. Thus the country recorded a 10 percent deficit in monsoon rains and a 45 percent deficit in the southern peninsula. Central India (6 percent) and East and North-East (18 percent) were deficient in rainfall. North-West India alone has had abundant monsoon rains, with an increase of 42%.

June rainfall increased in the second half following the exit of Tropical Cyclone Biparjoy, which also resulted in rainfall deficit in about 400 out of 717 districts. Average rainfall for July – Rainfall was in the normal range (average 94-106 per cent) critical for sowing of paddy, pulses, oilseeds, soya and sugarcane, meteorologists said.

The forecast comes amid widespread apprehension of an impending El Niño storm with the IMD’s estimate indicating the chances of a strong El Niño developing in July. El Niño is a weather pattern that affects the weather. As a result it affects the economies worldwide. It is marked by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, usually beginning around Christmas.

Disruptive weather patterns are often associated with a weak summer monsoon in India, although this is not a one-to-one relationship. There have been 18 drought years since 1901, of which 13 were El Niño years, indicating that 72 percent of drought years are associated with this phenomenon.